Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
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Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Intervention is in...Barely

Stock Market Technical Analysis blog




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In the market today, we had a strong afternoon intervention to stop the bloodshed at least for a while.  

Chart1:  The Nasdaq slipped thru the red shelf line this morning but at midday they came in strong and drove it back up above the red shelf line for what is called a "hard test" of that line.

Chart 2:  As they drove the Nasdaq higher the VIX dropped below the blue Day 432 EMA line, but just barely.  I have shown many times thru the years how when the VIX crosses above that line the market sells like there is no tomorrow and the selling stops when we get back down below it as we did in the final hour today.   It would have been nice to close further below the line.

Chart 3:  Shows that S&P is building a base.

Chart 4:  The advance decline "rally trigger" chart where each time the red line crosses above the green line buy programs kick in widespread.  While chart 2 shows the selling has paused we still need for the red line to cross above the green in this 120min bar advance decline chart to start a rally.

Trade well my friends

Alan

Friday, April 11, 2014

Manic Monday or Intervention Monday?

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog



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Looking at the Nasdaq tonight, the top chart is the 2 year view and the lower chart is the 10 year view.  Monday could be...pivotal?


Trade well my friends

Alan

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Declining Volume Giving Market Pause

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog





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In the market today momentum came to a halt as traders ponder the continuing declining volume. No one is sure if the Fed is willing or able to drive the S&P to retest the 1850 resistance level without investors joining in.  Everyone knows a good portion of the daily volume we do have is short covering but take that out and there isn't a whole lot of volume left which indicates no new long-side buying is taking place, simply the Fed buying and shorts buying to cover.  They might be able to keep it going but the past week and a half has been a 45 degree downhill slope in declining daily volume and the past two days have only been about two thirds of the 10 day average volume.  This doesn't mean that the market rally will stop, however, only that this is the Fed's market and Yellen is wanting to make sure her name is in all caps at the top.  

Trade well my friends

Alan

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Fed Day Squeeze

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog





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In the market today the now routine Fed day market driver program was turned on early as has become the pattern when the Fed chief speaks.  They let it run into the afternoon causing serious pain to the shorts and then the squeeze was on.  It all looks good except the volume has been anemic.  It looks like the question of whether Yellen is carrying over Ben's PPT technicians or starting out with her own appointments has been answered.  Today's market drive was orderly, powerful, and relentless showing no signs of newbies at the wheel.

Trade well my friends

Alan

Monday, February 10, 2014

Market Ekes Out Small Gain Ahead of Yellen

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog





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In the market today we had an all day tug-of-war at the S&P's 50 EMA line until finally late in the day it crossed above it.  The VIX, VXX, and TLT traders refused to acknowledge it as they are looking for Yellen to push the happy talk tomorrow but still say she is going to take away another 10B in stimulus disappointing the stock bulls.  We will see...

Trade well my friends

Alan

Friday, February 7, 2014

Day 2: A Big Day

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog





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In the market today we had a strong up day for the second day.  They are turning the titanic and it is indeed turning and fairly quickly.  

Looking at the charts:
  • Cluster 1: most interesting is chart 8 which we will be watching to see if the VXX drops down into its longterm downhill channel Monday or Tuesday.
  • Cluster 2:  once again, the VXX  (VIX futures) stands out as they are showing resistance to going lower.  Also, chart 9 the bonds shows the bond traders aren't sure the stocks will still be rallying next week.  
  • Cluster 3:  Most interesting is chart 2, S&P, where we see today's trading closed at its orange 50 day EMA line.  Also, notice that in the TLT bonds chart they are preparing a red/ green 5/10 layup to welcome traders back over to their playground should the S&P not break thru that 50 day EMA line on Monday.
  • Cluster 4:  key charts are VXX where we see it set down on its orange 50 line at the close.  Also notice the TLT bonds are showing support at its blue 20 line.
The Fed cannot let up on this drive next week, it's all about momentum and if they lose it it will be difficult to regain it.


Trade well my friends

Alan

Thursday, February 6, 2014

So Far So Good...

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog


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In the market today the lower lines of the short term channels of the stock indexes shown in charts 1-6 did provide a bounce which kept the red EMAs from piercing thru the green EMA lines and if we get another up day tomorrow we could start to see the tip of the red lines level out and possibly start to curve up a little into the bell if it's a big up day.  

Notable tonight is chart 7 & 8 where we saw large pullbacks in the VIX & VXX.

Most important thing is...we do need tomorrow to be an up day.


Trade well my friends

Alan