Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

S&P and VIX Forming Large Triangles

The market action in the past two weeks has been excessively choppy but there is a rhyme and reason to it as the S&P 500 and the VIX are both steadily constructing large symmetric triangle patterns on their daily charts.  

Looking at the daily chart of the S&P above we can see that it is still maintaining its red channel after slipping out of the two-year blue channel.  The inlay chart shows the developing large symmetric triangle that is clearly visible now.

The daily chart of the VIX above shows we can officially say goodbye to the six-year downhill brown line channel.  The horizontal blue channel which took the VIX out of the brown line channel is still containing the VIX but now that the uphill red line channel has become dominant it is quite possible that the blue channel could become history in the next few months if the red channel forces the VIX up out of it.  The inlay chart at the top shows the large triangle also developing on the VIX which is very similar to the S&P.

These large triangles imply that a large sustained move may not be far off in the S&P and the VIX.

Trade well my friends


Sunday, January 11, 2015

Did Oil Put In A Bottom Friday Morning?

With the falling price of oil rattling the global stock markets everyone is trying to figure out just when oil will hit a bottom.  Friday morning oil found support at the lower lines of two primary channels.  

Taking a look at oil viewing it through the weekly chart of the USO (shown on the left side below), we can see that this is the first support of any kind for oil for some time as it now has support from both its long term blue line channel and its midterm red line channel.  We touched down to both Friday morning.  

Taking a look at the daily chart of the USO (shown on the right below), we can see that oil has developed bullish divergences in the CCI, RSI, and MACD plus printed a hammer reversal candle Friday.  Traders will be watching for the possibility of either a pin bounce or consolidation at these lines which would boost optimism that oil has found at least a bottom if not the bottom.  

Friday, January 9, 2015

A Phoned in Market Intervention..............Really?

Friday's action in the stock market was very bearish as investors rejected Fed Chief Evans' call-in market intervention executed at 10 PM Wednesday night where he put out on the newswires that the Fed may not raise interest rates until 2016.  This caused the overnight S&P Futures to explode twenty points higher in about as many minutes which continued into a big gap open Thursday and another Fed induced short squeeze Thursday. 

This verbal intervention was almost identical to the mid-October maneuver by Fed Chief Bullard.  In both cases their tactical surprise dovish statements sent to the newswires during the thinly traded overnight futures completely reversed the global stock markets and marked the bottom to the very second it came across the newswires.  Friday's give back of Thursday's short squeeze was a symbolic statement by investors that such an artificial rally is just not going to cut it anymore.   If you were following the Wall Street Journal online Thursday evening in their market data center page, they showed that there was a huge outflow in the SPY money flow reading Thursday as investors sold big into the strength of Thursday's squeeze.  

How about something with a little more meat on the bone guys?

Trade well my friends


Tuesday, January 6, 2015

S&P Loses Short-Term Support, Closes Tuesday at Long-Term Support

The stock market suffered another wave of selling Tuesday quickly breaking through the short-term support I focused on in Monday's article.  Tuesday's close left all four equity indices sitting at major moving average lines and at the bottom of long-term channels.  

In the top chart above of the S&P we see that it touched down to its lower channel line and its 150 day SMA line shown in blue.  In the second chart above of the NASDAQ we see that it touched down to its lower channel line and its 100 day SMA line also shown in blue.  These indices cannot move much lower without causing a break of both the moving average and trendline support for both.  

In the next two charts above, we see that the DOW & the Russell 2000 both touched down to their 100 day SMA lines shown in blue.  The DOW & Russell 2000 are in a slightly different situation from the S&P and NASDAQ as they could slip through the SMA support and could still catch the support of the lower channel line just below where they are at now.  

The Fed really needs to step in here as there is too much long term support under all four indices to have them all fail at the same time.  If the market does turn red Wednesday we can't rule out the possibility of a "hard test" of the support lines where they slip through but then come right back up topside printing a bullish hammer candle in the process.  They could also come in on the futures and we could have a gap up open Wednesday which could then force a short squeeze or there could simply be too many sellers weary of the fact that the S&P has tripled in six years and has its newly opened yearly candle grossly overextended from its year 20 EMA line as I showed in the last chart of Monday's article.

Trade well my friends


Monday, January 5, 2015

S&P Closes At Multiple Support Lines

Those who bought SPY Puts or shorted the SPY when I posted my over-extension charts in my last article on December 26th have made a lot of money in a short time.  After today's big down move it really is time to start watching for a Fed intervention as the S&P 500 closed Monday at several key support lines. 

First we need to take a look at the chart above, a midterm channels chart of the S&P using two-hour bars.  Most notable is the blue line coming across from the mid-September high which the S&P closed right at at today.  Also, today's closing found us right at the lower line of the red downhill channel and at the center line of the uphill green channel plus the lower line of the steep, thin purple line uphill channel.  We had a closing that is essentially right at four key support lines at the same time.  

Looking next at the updated chart above which I last showed on 12/26 when the S&P had reached maximum extension, I have inserted two thin red lines up through the center representing the area or "band" where the Fed intervenes in the market.  Today's closing was just pennies into that band confirming that it is time to be watching closely for the Fed to come in.  In the past year and a half they reversed every sell off in that narrow band except for the early October plunge which took the S&P all the way down to the 324 EMA line.  Taking that into account, it is certainly possible that they may save their powder and just plan on a monster short squeeze from the 324 line a week or two from now or they could come in during the night with one of their trademark Futures ramp jobs. Nobody knows but if you are still holding Puts or short the SPY from the 12/26 max extension, it is time to weigh the risk/reward of holding further since we have entered the area where an intervention can happen at any time.  After Tuesday's close we will probably have resolved the multiple lines support situation and we will have a better feel for where the market will be heading next at least in the short term.

Finally, taking a look at the S&P yearly candles chart below we now have a new yearly candle open. 

One might say it is just a little too far above the blue 20 EMA line.   

Trade well my friends