Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Friday, January 31, 2014

Still Holding the Line

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog










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In the market today the choppy sideways movement continued as the S&P continues to hold the 108 EMA line (chart 4 above).  I decided to add the 20 year S&P chart (chart 1) as I have posted it numerous times in the past 9 months.  It shows the 5 year bull market cycle could be coming to an end soon.  I don't post this chart often as I don't want my inbox full of permabull hate mail, lol.  I decided to post it tonight because there is another voice out there tonight drawing attention to this historical S&P cycle.  On CNBC.com this evening, Art Cashin has posted an article talking about how bull markets have a maximum shelf life of 5 years and that we are close to the 5 year mark.  I'm not trying to be bearish and most professional traders are fully aware of this which has no doubt contributed to the recent selling pressure.  Many people are not though, and if you are not in the market for the long run it is something to think about.  

There's no doubt that trying to break the S&P supercycle will be Yellen's job one and she might be able to make history and do it or the Fed may not have enough dry powder to take on such an enormous task.  Time will tell if she can break the cycle.

Looking at the regular charts, chart 2 shows the month long view of the indexes with the classic professional traders trade entry EMAs embedded.  Looking at the left side charts, the Nasdaq, S&P, and DOW it is easy to see how the pro traders are bucking the Feds effort to bounce the market again here.  Another notable item in the 8 regular trendline charts that follow, is that AAPL is down to its lower mother channel line where it will be watched closely next week. 

Trade well my friends

Alan

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Hold the Line

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog








Click on images to enlarge


Straight to the point tonight...it's all about chart number 2 above, the S&P.  Today's taper drop has the S&P clinging to the lower line of its 15 month red uphill channel.  To add to the seriousness of the situation, the S&P is also resting on its 108 EMA line where Bernanke has rescued the market three times in the past 12 months.  We are at that 108 EMA line again.  

Will Bernanke step in one more time tomorrow with a final tip of the hat rescue of the market or does he let a big fall begin?  Place your bets...

Trade well my friends

Alan

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Self Service Blog

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog


Self service blog tonight, just drop a quarter in the slot and you are good to go!


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Trade well my friends

Alan

Monday, January 13, 2014

Someone Trip On The Cord?

Stock Market Technical Anaysis Blog



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Wayne! Wake up!  They turned off the tractor program!

What? No way Garth!  Oh, crap, well they'd better just turn it back on!



In the market today we saw the powerful tractor program, that had been clamped down on the market since the first trading day of the new year, suddenly turned off.   There were plenty of cut and paste headlines offered up saying it is because investors suddenly realized that earnings would be in the toilet if not for the parade of downward guidance taking place right now.  

Standing back and looking at the big picture for the moment we all know that when Fed chiefs make their exit it is a little embarrassing to do so while they've got the market locked down to keep it from falling.  It's just about as classy as leaving the restroom with toilet paper on your shoe, just doesn't look good.  Maybe after today's selloff we might see Yellen's opening volley tractor program turned on a little early.  


Trade well my friends

Alan