Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Tuesday, April 30, 2013


Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog

Click on image to enlarge

I would like to focus on AAPL in tonight's blog.  AAPL has had several rallies off oversold conditions in the past several months only to make it up to its 50 Day EMA line then get slapped back down without mercy (as shown in chart 3 above).

This time, however, AAPL may have the juice to break out for the following reasons:
  • Looking at chart 1 above (a weekly bars chart of AAPL with On Balance Volume shown) we see that since AAPL peaked it is currently experiencing its first bullish OBV divergence and it is a nice one, not too many weeks apart on the bottom points and a healthy rise on the second point for a good solid push OBV divergence.  The width and height of the divergence could keep it moving for several weeks.
  • Looking at chart 2, we have the monthly Candles of AAPL showing a nice bullish reversal candle for this month and it is being supported by AAPL's monthly 50 EMA line, a very important long term support level.  The rest of the monthly candles prior to this one weren't really anything investors cold work with.
  • Looking at chart 4, the long term trendline chart of AAPL, we see it found support in its Fall 2011 channel and still has room to move up in its four month downhill channel that it is in.
  • Looking at chart 3, the daily candles chart, we see that it actually closed above its Day 50 EMA which it has failed to do in the previous four oversold rallies of the past six months.
  • Also, at the bell yesterday, twin 1.46 million share institutional entry blocks came through and today's opening twin 176k institutional entry blocks came through.  It's worth noting that on July 26th of last year we also saw those twin 1.46 million blocks come through before the big two month run up to its all time high.
  • Also, to improve the mood of the fundamentals traders out there AAPL has nice news on both its dividends and today on its Bond issue.
Putting it all together, AAPL finally has enough TA working for it to satisfy most hedgefunds to flip to the long side and also, too much TA set up for any institutional firm that has been hurting from holding it to feel wise to unload any more.  If AAPL continues on above its 50 Day EMA the next few days, that will be its first true technical breakout this year.  Let's see what this old dog can do.

Trade well my friends