Party on Garth!

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog

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In the market today traders quickly shifted into a Wayne's World mentality and started buying with both hands and feet as we learned that Yellen's helicopter is not only likely to be bigger than Ben's but will have twin payload dropping trap doors.  Most notably the S&P / SPY broke out of its recent channel increasing the odds that we could have a parabolic bubble during Ben's remaining days.  

Taking a look at the charts above:

1.  7-day intraday chart of SPY we see that it regained its steep channel from last week
2. 120min bar chart of VIX showing red/blue down cross follow thru
3. Day candles of SPY - a strong daily candle off the bollinger basis line, popular with newcomers to the market
4. Week candles of SPY shows us riding the upper rail
5. SPY - going to pass on this orange/green lift as the market has been literally reeking of manipulation this past week
6. VIX - continued slow EMA pushdown
7. SPY - we are already establishing the first ramp up channel for a bubble
8. VIX - approaching the danger of the 12.00 level but hey, who cares? looks like money will be falling from the sky for some time
9. SPY -  pushing up from and rejecting the summer channel
10. VIX - that silly VIX, who pays attention to that anyway nowadays?
11. SPY - approaching its greatest overextension from its 100 EMA line ever
12. SPY major EMA lift getting really long in the tooth now
13. SPY bounced off the 15 EMA line today right on above upper float channel line in the newfound euphoria
14. SPY ADX - if you have followed ADX on the SPY very long you just got to love that pattern lol
15. SPY if you loved the ADX pattern, you will think what they are doing to the MACD reading right now is just peachy
16. SPY do we really need all those big congestion SMAs anymore?
17. SPY pusing higher off last resistance line
18. SPY Fibonacci - good thing it didn't take long to post those Fibonacci lines
19. SPY see you later blue channel?
20. 25 year chart of S&P can't we find a steeper channel?
21. 2-year chart of NASDAQ - could someone please erase those upper channel lines?  who needs them anyway
22. 2-year chart of DOW playing by the rules but may not want to much longer

P.S.  Sorry for the cynical slant tonight, I really miss the old stock market where moves were real and manipulation was only occasional

Trade well my friends

Alan

Sasquatch Roars Out of The Treeline

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog

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In the market today Sasquatch, the monstrous short interest, who has been forced to cower in humiliation smelled the taper fears in the air and came charging out of the treeline with a pack of hungry bears right behind him.  His sudden appearance rattled a lot of investors and the selling mushroomed as the day went on.  We did have a noticeable divergence today however, as the VIX rose only modestly while the indexes heaved buckets which could trip up the bears if they get charging too fast.

Taking a look at the charts above:

1.  7-day intraday chart of SPY we see that it is already down to the support of the lower line of the slowly descending channel it broke up out of
2. 120min bar chart of VIX where we see a modest move stopping at the resistance of the red line
3. Day candles of SPY - okay, that is one ugly bearish engulfing candle
4. Week candles of SPY showing primarily today's drop
5. SPY - orange and greens lines should come to a juncture tomorrow
6. VIX - orange and greens lines should also come to a juncture tomorrow
7. SPY - did slip below the upper channel line finally
8. VIX - bears need to be cautious here, not much of a VIX move for such a huge selloff and the VIX is well within its orange channel containment
9. SPY -  shows bigger picture view of SPY dropping below upper channel line
10. VIX - shows the fat fingered double bottom the bears would like to get some mileage out of
11. SPY - the spitwad finally starts coming loose from the ceiling
12. SPY major EMA lift getting a little long in the tooth
13. SPY lost both the lower float turnover channel line and the 15 EMA line in one day
14. SPY ADX - plus, minus line are closing in on each other quickly
15. SPY slips below its 5th Gann ray sector,  MACD downcrosses to the delight of the bears
16. SPY still a little above the congestion of the traditional large SMAs
17. SPY shows a support line not far below if we do go lower tomorrow
18. SPY Fibonacci - new Fibonacci rack in place, we're halfway down to the first refreshment stand, the 38% retracement with huge red volume today
19. SPY 2-year chart shows it did fall back down into its two year blue line secondary channel
20. 25 year chart of S&P
21. 2-year chart of NASDAQ - a very important chart to examine as the Nasdaq has been climbing from its lower channel line to its upper for an entire year and is now stalling at the upper line.  Well known that it has been the leader for the bullish sentiment.  Today's big loss on the Nasdaq could easily be a game changer as far as broad senitment goes.
22. 2-year chart of DOW showing it is at its upper line of its horizontal blue channel, not much damage here today

Trade well my friends

Alan

Bubble Anyone?

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog

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In the market today we had a modest up day which in itself is nothing special  until you consider the fact that SPY bounced up from the top side of its upper channel line on Friday.  Repeating my closing comments of my 10/24 blog where I mentioned that we could easily enter uncharted territory here and see all rules and logic thrown out the window.  Friday's bounce from the topside of the channel raised eyebrows and has certainly increased that chance of something crazy starting here and we have seen conversation across the grapevine that Ben may actually be considering a hyperbolic bubble as his last hurrah before he exits.  

It has become pretty obvious that the Fed will not be able to turn off the QE steroids without causing substantial damage to the market possibly in the 15% range.  The argument that he may be about to fiercely bubble the market up that 15% from here then pull the QE plug which will then likely drop the market 15% but in reality it would just take us down back to where we are at now. Problem solved, no biggie right?  

It sounds crazy but with the incredible manipulation going on the past few weeks it looks like Ben is up to something.  If you really think about it this might be the only way he can get himself out of the corner he has painted himself into.  Disregarding the fact that stock market bubbles have a history of not ending very well, it's quite possible that may be what's coming or at least Ben may be trying to figure out if he could succeed in such a venture.  

Taking a look at the charts above:

1.  7-day intraday chart of SPY showing its climb back up toward the Prop-toberfest tractor program's high
2. 120min bar chart of VIX showing we how missed a bullet over the past few days as the red line crossed down through the blue line instead of bouncing up from it. This was possible because the red line of the VIX was coming down at a fairly steep angle due to the tractor program running on the SPY for so long.
3. Day candles of SPY showing a hammer
4. Week candles of SPY showing a hanging man early in the candle after closing as a shooting star last week
5. SPY bouncing with a little too much air between the lines 
6. VIX in an EMA pushdown situation now
7. SPY - a close up view of Friday's eyebrow raising bounce up from the top side of the upper channel line
8. VIX now descending
9. SPY -  a bigger view of Friday's top side line bounce in the SPY
10. VIX taking aim for its lower channel line again
11. SPY still ridiculously overextended from its 100 day EMA
12. SPY major EMA lift getting a little long in the tooth
13. SPY now has the upper float turnover channel line at the tractor program high with its turn up not even close to the 15 EMA line
14. SPY ADX - plus, minus line divergence can be interpreted as sellers backing off but buyers still hesitant to come in 
15. SPY shows it bounced back up into its 5th Gann ray sector Friday, with MACD re-opening
16. SPY is still well out of the congestion of the traditional large SMAs
17. SPY passed back above the previous week's spike
18. SPY Fibonacci - will take a couple days before I post another Fibonacci set.  Noteworthy is the fact that the SPYs volume should have been up in the 175 million range if today's move was genuine buying and not manipulation. It instead came in at an anemic 80 million
19. SPY 2-year chart shows it bouncing up from the top side of the two year blue line secondary channel
20. 25 year chart of S&P
21. 2-year chart of NASDAQ - a very important chart to examine as the Nasdaq has been climbing from its lower channel line to its upper for an entire year and is now stalling at the upper line.  Well known that it has been the leader for the bullish sentiment
22. 2-year chart of DOW showing it is at its upper line of its horizontal blue channel

Trade well my friends

Alan