Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Snap back rally...11/24/10

Stock Market Technical Analysis

click on above images to enlarge

Today we saw a full snapback in the market although on low holiday volume.

In Chart #1 - The S&P daily bars chart, we saw the S&P gap up and move back up to its brown channel line.

Chart #2 - The VIX violatility index or fear index  which trades in inverse to the markets. We see that the VIX deflected down from the underside of the purple channel it ran up against at yesterdays close.  It dropped back down to its the lower line of its blue channel and bounced up some in the afternoon as volume dried up for the holiday.

Chart#3 - Th US Dollar index daily bars chart.  We see the dollar climbed a little more, diverging from its normal behavior on market rally days.

Chart #4 - The S&P 2 hour bars chart.  We see that the black line channel did indeed bounce the market up today as was discussed last night.

Chart #5 - The SPY Daily bars chart. This is the chart that keeps everyone a little nervous.  This chart normally leads the action and is bearish right now,  but instead the long term moving average charts  #8 & #9 are running the market instead.

Chart #6 - The VIX daily bars 5-10 ma chart.  The VIX red 5 line got up underneath the green 10 line and turned sideways as I discussed last night  in the chart 6 notes.  If Fridays short, low volume session ends positive the red 5 ma line should continue to curl downward to set up for a forced drop on Monday.

Chart #7 - The 2 hour candles chart of the S&P.  We see that the morning trading took it up through several lines but was stopped by the pink 50 line but found support just below it at the brown 100 line  during the third and the last candle today.  A neutral bias situation.

Chart #8 - The daily candles chart of the S&P.We once gain lifted from the support of the light green 40 ma line, crossed the dark green 10 ma line, and finished the day up against the blue 20 ma line.  This is a bearish situation if and until it breaks up through the blue 20 line.  Being up under the bottom side of that line is not a place it wants to be for very long.

Chart #9 - The weekly candles chart of the S&P. This weeks bar looks like it will close using the dark green 10 ma line for support for the second week.

Chart #10 - The 30 min advance/decline chart. We see that today close put up high into the intra-week sell area.  Friday is likely to give back some at the open, but being a very light volume holiday session, the odds favor the advdec only dropping to the center black line on Friday.

Chart #11 - The S&P 30 min trendlines chart.  We see that todays rally leveled out at the upper red channel line. Plus we also re-entered the blue channel by doing so. Which channel we go by for Friday and Monday will have to be resolved.

Chart #12 - The 30 min S&P moving average chart.  We see that a 5-10 lift was set up into the bell today. This is bullish but the advdec being so high could easily stop that small lift set up, unless we happen to break out of the red channel in chart # 11 right away Friday morning.

Chart #13,14,and 15 - These long term weekly bar  trendline charts show little visible change from last night. 

Chart #16 - We see that the UYG financials ETF is trying to get back up on top of the rose colored 108 ema line.

Chart #17-20 -  Thes 3 long term charts show little visible change from last night.

Chart # 21 - The Daily bars 10/20 ema chart of the S&P. If you look closely you can see that the red 10 ema line is becoming more visible on top of the green 20 line.  If Fridays market starts upward this up biased set up will give big lift.  If Fridays market  starts downward, it cant do a lot of damge to the setup in just one day. 

Overall, the path of least resistance is up Friday, but we need a small pullback at the open to get the advdec back to at least the center 0 line and then we could float up slowly as often happens on super low volume 1/2 day sessions,  assuming no bad news pops up Friday morning,  which could drop the indexs in a heartbeat.