Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

5/15/12 The VIX Pauses, UUP Runs

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog
click on above image to enlarge

Following up from last night's blog, the PPT did indeed defend the VIX from closing above the weekly 50 EMA line today.  We briefly crossed it but dropped back to close underneath in the afternoon.  Considering that the UUP (Dollar Index shown in the three charts above) closed at its high of the day after rising at a runaway pace all day, the fact that the VIX did pull back from its high of day shows that the PPT did indeed have some success today.  If they can make the 50 EMA on the weekly VIX a cap then it should slow down the UUP or possibly bring it to a stop.
 
Looking at the top right chart showing the daily UUP we can see there is a trendline that was met at the close today on this UUP run.  This might also help to slow the UUP to a stop even though there isn't much good news on the euro zone situation which has been causing the Euro to continue to fall and the Dollar to rise and the US Stock Market  to sink.
 
 
Glancing around at a few key stocks, AAPL had a Day 10/50 EMA down cross today which caused it to fall out of the slightly uphill channel it has been trying to establish a base in the past week.  This channel originated in 2/25/12 to 3/15/12. 
 
 
The S&P closed at its 150 Day EMA today which might very well lend a couple of days of support as the 100 Day EMA did last week.  The VXX (short term VIX futures) closed today right at its Day 50 EMA which should tend to be a major pivot over the next couple of days.  If it doesn't get above the Day 50 EMA this week the fear in the market should start to subside.  If we do cross above it and close above it, the PPT will need to pull out their plan B that they used so heavily last summer and simply gap the stock market open huge to prevent the sell off from escalating.

Alan