Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Bears Sniffing the Air, Looking A Little Confused

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog

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In the market today we had a slightly up day as the sideways propping continued that I mentioned I was expecting this week in Monday's blog.  It's been a bit more than propping though as they clamped down a tractor program on the market yesterday that has kept the S&P in a very narrow almost straw-like tube for two days, effectively locking down the market right where it's at.

While we are still lower than we were on Tuesday, more than a few eyebrows were raised this afternoon as the VIX started drifting downward with the SPY still right at the upper channel line after dropping below it yesterday.  What Ben & Co have planned for their parting hurrah is anyone's guess, however, since the initial drop at the first of the week we are in a slight uptrend these last two days.  The bears are no doubt watching this closely somewhat confused as the VIX should be climbing higher as the market goes sideways, the common prelude to an upcoming decline to the lower channel line on the S&P.

Taking a look at the charts:
  • Chart 1:  Daily candles - another slightly bullish hammer today but with no multiday decline in front of it, it is obviously manipulation
  • Chart 2:  Weekly candles - yesterday's shooting star formation is starting to have the body fill in today as it approaches the possibility of becoming a neutral candle by tomorrow night
  • Chart 3:  yesterday's orange line support was what gave the market some modest upward movement today
  • Chart 4:  yesterday the VIX had freshly crossed above its orange EMA line looking to climb higher but today we see that it dropped back below it, an afternoon victory for the bulls
  • Chart 5:  60 min bar chart of the SPY - while we haven't regained the blue ascension channel we are back up and slightly above the upper red channel line
  • Chart 6:  60 min bar chart of the VIX - the 3 day uptrend was breached as the VIX slipped below its 3 day orange channel
  • Chart 7:  shows the SPY has moved back up today to exactly its upper channel line
  • Chart 8:  shows the VIX starting to decline today
  • Chart 9:  shows the SPY is extended away from its 100 day EMA line, about as far as it ever gets away from it and also shows the still steadily decreasing volume 
  • Chart 10:  the major lift EMAs have done their job once again
  • Chart 11:  the SPY is positioned well above the congestion of the large traditional SMAs
  • Chart 12:  shows how yesterday's low got support from the line coming across at the Bernanke no taper speech pop
  • Chart 13:  we are far from having a major Fibonacci line come into play
  • Chart 14:  the two year chart of the S&P showing how it has bubbled out of its primary black line channel
  • Chart 15:  the 25 year chart of the S&P showing we still have another 2-4 months in the current 5 year supercycle
Looking forward we could easily enter uncharted territory here and see all rules and logic being thrown out the window.  Maybe not but it's something to keep in mind.

Trade well my friends