Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Friday, January 31, 2014

Still Holding the Line

Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog

click on image to enlarge

In the market today the choppy sideways movement continued as the S&P continues to hold the 108 EMA line (chart 4 above).  I decided to add the 20 year S&P chart (chart 1) as I have posted it numerous times in the past 9 months.  It shows the 5 year bull market cycle could be coming to an end soon.  I don't post this chart often as I don't want my inbox full of permabull hate mail, lol.  I decided to post it tonight because there is another voice out there tonight drawing attention to this historical S&P cycle.  On this evening, Art Cashin has posted an article talking about how bull markets have a maximum shelf life of 5 years and that we are close to the 5 year mark.  I'm not trying to be bearish and most professional traders are fully aware of this which has no doubt contributed to the recent selling pressure.  Many people are not though, and if you are not in the market for the long run it is something to think about.  

There's no doubt that trying to break the S&P supercycle will be Yellen's job one and she might be able to make history and do it or the Fed may not have enough dry powder to take on such an enormous task.  Time will tell if she can break the cycle.

Looking at the regular charts, chart 2 shows the month long view of the indexes with the classic professional traders trade entry EMAs embedded.  Looking at the left side charts, the Nasdaq, S&P, and DOW it is easy to see how the pro traders are bucking the Feds effort to bounce the market again here.  Another notable item in the 8 regular trendline charts that follow, is that AAPL is down to its lower mother channel line where it will be watched closely next week. 

Trade well my friends