Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Weekly Index Charts Holding In Overbought Condition

Stock Market Technical Analysis

click on image to enlarge

Taking a look at the weekly charts of the S&P and the NASDAQ, we see that both indexes are still holding at their maximum distance from their weekly 65 EMA lines shown in blue in the upper part of the two  charts.  Also, both indexes are still holding at the upper line of their expanding triangle patterns, an unnatural place to just hold when extended so far from the weekly 65 EMA line. 

Looking at the middle section of the two charts, we see that the S&P and the NASDAQ both just pegged the weekly 100 stochastic level after making a zero to one-hundred stochastic run in record time.  

Looking at the bottom section of the charts above, we see that the bearish RSI divergence that took the market down a couple of months ago is set up once again for doing the same.  

Normally, this is a textbook sell off situation ready to start but two things have to be considered:
  1. Friday is options expiration and Puts have been outselling Calls three to one.  We should have been seeing a quick move up in the market Wednesday and continuing into Thursday so that they can wipe out the Put holders but it's not happening.  It's unusual that we are not seeing this, pumping the market higher right before expiration has been free money for the option divisions of the big Wall Street firms the past two months.  
  2. The Fed is no doubt not at all pleased with how these charts look and how paired institutional marker trades continue to come through on the SPY.  If you are a bear you might not want to be the first to go short because up until now, standing in front of the Fed's stealth buying programs has not been a very healthy thing to do.
We will see...

Trade well my friends


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