Lastly the Ever Reliable Utility Sector XLU

The utility sector has earned its reputation as the slow but reliable wealth grower.  

As long as it continues to work its way upward it will also receive a lot of the technology stock cash outs.  Be keenly aware that the IYT Transportation Index and this Utility sector Index are both sitting on the lower line of their seven year up channels.  If by chance they both fall out their seven year channels at the same time it will have serious implications for the broad market.

Happy New Year to All!

XLV: Are Healthcare Stocks the New Place to Hide?

As the stock market has topped out and is looking weak, history has shown that investors typically flip over into bonds.  This time however, that migration has shown to be weak and instead the healthcare sector appears to be diverging from the rest of the stock market and becoming the default receptor of technology stock cash.

It's an interesting phenomenon but may very well make sense as the boomers age.

Trade well my friends

Alan

XPH Big Pharma Index Well on its Way Back Down

The XPH has gotten a little carried away the past few years and has now begun paying for it as it has one of the steepest declines underway.  

It appears destined to return to its still bullish longterm uphill blue channel.

Trade well my friends

Alan

XHB Home Builder Index Approaches Critical Point

XHB has been a strong performer the past seven years.  Most recently it has also had a midterm channel shown in black where it has been afforded several slips thru the line.  It is currently under the channel and backtesting it.

Soon however, the lower line of the two channels will merge and either provide double support or an all is lost break thru point.  We will have to see.

Trade well my friends

Alan

IYT Transportation Index at Critical Point

The IYT provides a visual representation of the true health of the economy that is lost or concealed in most economic reports.  The past year the Index has shown a slow decline that syncs with the underlying situation in the economy.  

Right now it is sitting on the lower line of its 7-year uphill channel.  If it drops out of that channel it will throw a huge shadow over the validity of the economic reports being served up.

Trade well my friends

Alan

EEM Resumes its 7-Year Downhill Channel

Although EEM had a major rally two years after the great recession, since then it has continued to descend inside of its seven year green downhill channel.

It is currently sitting on the lower line of that channel as it was a couple of months ago but it could be beginning to slide lower on the line.

Trade well my friends

Alan

Bond Market Resumes Its Downtrend

Looking at the bond market as a whole with the BND total bond market Index, we can see that it has been slowly downtrending for three and a half years.

The bond market did trade sideways from June through October but has now resumed its downtrending.

Trade well my friends

Alan

XLK the Year's Leader Finally Showing Weakness

The XLK Technology Index has held up much better than the broad market which can easily be seen by comparing the upper chart in this post to the upper chart in the previous VTI post.

However, in the past couple of months it is finally showing signs of weakening as it continues to slip out of its two year red uphill channel.

Trade well my friends

Alan

VTI Total Stock Market Index Slowly Weakening

The VTI total stock market index has been on a six month downtrend and has shown signs of further weakening recently.

Looking at the weekly chart in the lower half, it is obvious we do have some time before it might be dealing with the lower line of the seven year uphill blue channel.

Trade well my friends

Alan

VXX Flirting with Huge Channel

The VXX (VIX short term futures ETF) broke out of its Fall downtrend line a couple of weeks ago and is now flirting with the huge red channel going back to January 2014.

If the VXX reenters the red channel and finds support on the top side of the lower line the broad market could have a real problem.

Trade well my friends

Alan

X Loses 11-Year Channel

This past summer X finally fell out of its 11-year channel and continues to drift lower.

click on image to enlarge

Hard to find much to like about that chart.

Trade well my friends

Alan

Good night everyone

RIG Drifting Lower

RIG continues to drift lower but it can't blame it all on the price of oil as it has been downtrending for seven years.

click on image to enlarge

Trade well my friends

Alan

HAL 10-year Run Is Over

HAL had a good run but the past year has been downtrending after falling out of its 10-year uphill channel then failing a back test of it.

click on image to enlarge

It does have support in the $30 and $20 areas.

Trade well my friends

Alan

AIG Still Steadily Climbing

The practice of splits and reverse splits has left us with one unusual looking weekly chart on AIG.

click on image to enlarge

Hedgefunds really enjoy this stock because of its steadiness.

Trade well my friends

Alan

WFC Testing 6-Month Downhill Channel

WFC is both testing its 6-month downhill channel and wrestling with the center line of its long term blue channel.

click on image to enlarge

It's too early to call which way this one will break...

Trade well my friends

Alan

JPM Continues Its Strong Bull Trend

JPM has shown amazing strength the past 3 years as it has continued to ride up the underside of its blue long term upper channel line.  

click on image to enlarge

This type of price action demonstrates extreme strength and resilience.

Trade well my friends

Alan

GS Holding the Line

Although GS slipped out of its 2-year uphill channel a few months ago, investors shouldn't be too concerned just yet as it is holding the center line of its long term blue channel quite well.

click on image to enlarge

It must hold that center line however, as losing it would affect the broad market.

Trade well my friends

Alan

QCOM Just Missed the Boat?

Up until last month, QCOM's year and a half descent appeared to possibly be done if it could just hold the center line of its long term blue channel.

click on image to enlarge

Unfortunately, last month it slipped down thru that blue center line.  Looking at the weekly chart above,however, we can see that QCOM gets a little sloppy at that center blue line so it could turn back up and recover it quite easily.

Trade well my friends

Alan

ORCL Continues Its 10-Year Uphill Channel

While ORCL has been downtrending the past year, the past five months it has been basing on the lower line of its 10-year blue uphill channel.

click on image to enlarge

It's looking healthy enough to lift once again.

Trade well my friends

Alan

UAL Continues Higher

Looking at the charts, you can see that UAL has earned its perch as an investor favorite.

click on image to enlarge

UAL has been trading very steady for the past six months.

Trade well my friends

Alan

DAL Keeps on Climbing

DAL was a fairly boring stock until the Fall of 2012 when it started lifting from a deep technical setup.

click on image to enlarge

Since then it has been ramped up at a 45 degree angle and hasn't looked back.  I hear they really like cheap fuel prices, lol.

Trade well my friends

Alan

F Losing Its Mojo?

F, the juggernaut of several years ago, now has a short term downhill channel inside of a midterm downhill channel.

click on image to enlarge

To make matters worse, earlier this year F dropped out of its 7-year uphill blue channel.  

Trade well my friends

Alan

JCP Approaching A Decision Point

JCP has been trading pretty much sideways for the past couple of years after falling from lofty heights in earlier years.

click on image to enlarge

A couple of months ago it brushed up against the upper line of its 10-year downhill channel and has sold down since.  It is now brushing up against that blue line again for another try to break out.  If it can't break out of the blue channel, its sideways 2-year red channel may become history.

Trade well my friends

Alan

EBAY Maintains Its Short Term Channel

EBAY continues its tradition of maintaining or reclaiming channels almost like they are a magnet for its price.  

click on image to enlarge

Once again over the past month it has held its lower channel line and still looks good in the blue channel of the multi year chart (the lower chart above).  

Trade well my friends

Alan

SINA - Will It or Won't It?

In the world of stock traders, the largest group is arguably the break out junkies and SINA is the chart to watch for that make or break event.

click on image to enlarge

Will it break out of its 2-year black downhill channel or won't it?  Considering it has been building a triangle over the past two months, whichever way it breaks is likely to be a strong and fast move.

Trade well my friends

Alan

CSIQ - Full of Energy

CSIQ has become a favorite chart of swing traders because of the precision moves it makes and well honored channel lines.

click on image to enlarge

The weekly chart (in the lower half above) is truly a beautiful thing in a traders eyes.


Trade well my friends,

Alan

BIDU Setting Up for Round 2?

BIDU had an amazing run during October & November off of support of its lower long term channel line and also, a very deep technical setup.

click on image to enlarge

This past month it has switched from its weekly chart to its daily chart for the support of the lower line of its midterm red channel.  If it starts lifting from this lower channel line, it may very well be starting a run for the upper line of the long term blue channel.

Trade well my friends

Alan

XOM Attempting a Turn Up?

While XOM has been dragged down by plunging oil along with its counterparts, its long term weekly bars chart is still in decent shape overall.

click on image to enlarge

On the daily chart, its whole posture has improved since the August selling purge and it is now steadily working its short term pink channel higher, ready to try a breakout of its year and a half downhill red channel.

Trade well my friends

Alan

CMG - Superstar Becomes Falling Star

CMG...what can you say?  Anytime your stock's news stories include the CDC your stock is going down and CMG has been in a steepening spiral.  

click on image to enlarge

They really, really need some truly positive news to stop the carnage.

Trade well my friends

Alan

MGM Backtesting Breakout of 2-Year Downhill Channel

MGM, the third of the three musketeer casino stocks, has been gradually working its way out of its 2-year downhill channel using the red incline channel and it has now come to the point of backtesting the breakout from the downhill channel shown in black.

click on image to enlarge

The past year it has become a more volatile stock, pleasing daytraders and swing traders but if it breaks out of the blue channel on the weekly chart, longtermers too will be looking at it.

Trade well my friends

Alan

LVS At Long Term Support

LVS, another big casino stock, has recently found support at the lower line of its 10-year horizontal channel.

click on image to enlarge

On the lower weekly chart, it shows as a double bottom on that channel line and is looking like it's positioning to make a move upward.

Trade well my friends

Alan

WYNN Basing at Support

WYNN has had a steep downhill ride for 2 years now without any relief.  Over the past three months however, it has been building a base at the same shadow trendline level that turned it back up in January of 2009.

click on image to enlarge

On WYNN's weekly chart a triangle has formed at the support level.  Bottom playing position players will have a star on this one too.

Trade well my friends

Alan

BBRY Really Wants More

Over the past couple of weeks BBRY has had a strong lift off from a five-month wide inverse head and shoulders pattern.  

click on image to enlarge

Although it maxed out at the top line of its 3-month uphill pink channel last week, the channel sellers just aren't showing up and it's now starting to ride up that upper channel line implying that it really wants to go on up to the top line of the red channel.  

Trade well my friends

Alan

DIS Showing Huge Double Top

DIS has had an amazing run as it has shifted into steeper and steeper up channels but now however, it is showing a huge topping formation that feels more than a little ominous.

click on image to enlarge

In the upper chart I have drawn its neckline with the thin blue line.  There will be a lot of short orders set just below that line.  The lower chart (weekly bars chart) is comically overextended.

Trade well my friends

Alan

BAC the Sideways Steady Freddy

Over the past couple of years, BAC has been the slow but steady position trading stock that always manages to get from its lower channel line to its upper channel line eventually.  

click on image to enlarge

Its most recent wave up appeared to be well on its way but it stalled two thirds of the way up.  There is debate whether this is consolidation into a bull flag or BAC may actually be starting a downhill channel out of this red channel.  The weekly chart doesn't give any clue either way.

Trade well my friends

Alan

FSLR Breakout Coming?

FSLR has spent the past couple of years down-trending but has been generous with long side swing trades.  Most recently it is testing the upper line of its red downhill channel.

click on image to enlarge

The three month up channel has been  very precise, consistent in its waves and has shown no sign of weakness all the way up to the upper line of the two-year red downhill channel where it's at now. With traders still eyeing solar plays when the market starts to get shaky, this well structured 2-month ascending channel might be the one that breaks it out of the two-year downhill channel to make a run back up to the green midterm channel (shown in the lower chart).

Trade well my friends

Alan

BABA Weakening at Resistance

BABA has been a controversial stock the past year and its chart is a most unusual one.  Over the past couple of the months it has been building an ascending triangle but failed to lift from it as it came to a point.

click on image to enlarge

The past couple of days the pattern has become a technical failure and shorts love nothing more than an failed ascending triangle.  It should sell down from this but realize also that BABA has a bit of a cult following and this situation may not shake their faith.  We will have to see.

Trade well my friends

Alan

Has WFM Put in the Bottom?

WFM has had a really poor year but its outlook may be about to change.  It has recently set down on the lower line of its short term red channel which is good but more notably it has set down on the lower line of a huge long term channel (shown in blue).

click on image to enlarge

This month it has had a nice lift off of the support from two channel lines.  Bottom playing position traders will have a star pasted on this one.

Trade well my friends

Alan

SCTY Ready for Round 2?

SCTY has made a monster move over the past several weeks after it lifted from a very deep technical setup.  The setup is a high enough quality that it could easily have a second and third run off it.

click on image to enlarge

Normally, these deep setups will consolidate for a while before kicking in again but with the broad market looking shaky and traders having trouble finding the next big mover, a second round might come sooner than expected.

Trade well my friends

Alan

SBUX Had Better Not Turn Downward Here

SBUX has been an amazing stock for a number of years and recently broke up above the top of its long term blue channel which got the bears thinking that might have been the blow off top.  

click on image to enlarge

Whether it was or not will largely be determined by what it does now as it has dropped through its long term blue upper channel line then climbed back up to it.  If it finds resistance there and pushes downward from it then the top is very likely in.

Trade well my friends

Alan

MCD Has Developed a Rising Wedge

MCD has been declining over the past few years until a bottom bounce and breakout this past summer.  More recently its trading has tightened into a rising wedge.

click on image to enlarge

No sign of weakness yet but remember that the nickname for a rising wedge is an exhaustion wedge.  

Trade well my friends

Alan

TWTR Continues to Drift Lower

TWTR, another high flying IPO, that did well on its initial run and actually had a second well received run, has been steadily drifting lower since Spring.  

click on image to enlarge

The past 6 months it has been in the short term pink channel but has yet to travel to the top line of that channel even one time.  It needs an event level news to turn around its growing negative sentiment.

Trade well my friends

Alan

GPRO To Be Let Out of the Doghouse Soon?

GPRO, the high flying IPO from last year, has been a real disappointment since its initial run.  

click on image to enlarge

It managed to hold its IPO price until last September but then traders sent it deep into the doghouse over the past few months.  The past few weeks it has been trying to stabilize and it's pressing against its downtrend line now.  If the broad market rolls, there will likely be a number of traders that feel like it has been in the doghouse long enough and it's time to buy back in.

Trade well my friends

Alan

PCLN Continues Its Uptrend

Throughout the calendar year, PCLN has continued to provide swing trades again and again each time it bounces up from the lower line of its uphill midterm channel (shown in red).  

click on image to enlarge

Its downhill channel throughout last year (shown in brown) failed to take it out of its long term blue line channel (shown in the lower chart).  This situation set up PCLN to climb steadily this year and  is definitely one to be swing trading since it has such a tall channel which typically doesn't take a stock much higher year to year but provides lucrative swing trades during the interim.

Trade well my friends

Alan

NASDAQ Closes Against Major Resistance

After a disastrous Monday, the Santa rally resumed during the wee hours Tuesday morning and produced a major rip higher for the stock indices.  The NASDAQ being the star performer with a lot of traders cheering on but may now be asking what comes next as the NASDAQ closed on Tuesday up against its 6-month downtrend line.  

click on image to enlarge

Will this be a triple top at a 6-month downtrend line or does the Fed have something else in mind?

Trade well my friends

Alan

CAT Puts in Double Bottom at Major Support

CAT is another of this past year's beaten up names and has put in a double bottom at the lower line of its long term blue channel.  

click on image to enlarge

CAT and IBM are likely to trade together considering they've both been out of favor for a long time and both recently set down on major support.

Trade well my friends

Alan

IBM Sideways at Major Support

Since IBM has fallen out of its long term blue channel last year, it has had a long and painful slide but things may be about to improve for IBM as it has recently found support at a major support level coming across from 2008 to 2010 peaks.

click on image to enlarge

If the market takes a downturn, a lot of traders will be looking for last year's beaten up stocks to make a move and IBM is the poster child for that category.

Trade well my friends

Alan

MSFT Lofty but Continues Creeping Higher

MSFT has been a little boring the past couple of months as it creeps along in its midterm red line channel after having its big bull flag breakout higher a couple of months ago.  Having MSFT back up in that red channel seems to be fine with most traders but as it has slowly climbed across the upper line of its long term blue channel it is being watched more closely by the bears in case its tight march has a misstep which would essentially be losing its long term blue and midterm red channels at the same time.  

Click on image to enlarge

As tightly structured as the trading in MSFT has been recently, the odds favor it continuing creeping up as long as the broad market holds.

Trade well my friends

Alan

YHOO At Pivotal Juncture

YHOOs 3 month uphill pink channel is continuing to chip away at the heavy resistance of the center line of its long term blue channel and upper line of its midterm green channel.  It has broken across both of these lines in the past couple of months but fell back.  It can be argued that the pullback was caused by the upper line of its 3-month pink channel.  A lot of times a stock will approach a breakout point slowly because of a well defined slightly inclined short term channel.

click on image to enlarge

YHOO could really do anything at this juncture, the chart is just too mixed and conflicting.

Trade well my friends

Alan

FB Working a Bull Flag

FB has really only had one channel since shortly after its IPO and has adhered to its boundaries exceptionally well.  

click on image to enlarge

The path from one channel line to the other however, is never anything close to a straight line and sometimes seems downright sloppy and erratic but finally finds the other channel line.  The past couple of months however, FBs trading has changed considerably and it is now building a tight and consistent bull flag (shown with the blue lines in the upper chart).  This action seems to have been orchestrated to quickly put up a clear breakout line in case Wall Street really works the first five days of the new year pump routine.  FB would be ready to hop in and do its part with such a clear breakout line at the ready.

Trade well my friends

Alan