Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Monday, April 11, 2016

S&P Establishing a Steep Declining Channel

The S&P 500 continues its topping process even though oil has been squeezed relentlessly the past few days.  Monday we had a two point confirmation of the S&P market top that is textbook.  First, the third lower high was printed in the newly developing declining channel shown in red in the chart below.

Also, in the same trading day the S&P closed outside of its transition channel shown in blue.  These two together provide textbook technical confirmation that a new leg down has begun.  This is also where technicians pull out the Fibonacci scale to mark the token bounce points on the downward path.  The first benchmark Fibonacci line is the 38% retracement which is at 1974.  Swing traders wanting to catch the flip in the options montage when we catch a solid bounce will be watching for that 1974 Fib number and/or the Percent of S&P stocks above their 50 day moving average to reach the 40 level as I discussed in my April 6th blog post.  

Don't look for smooth natural trading for the next couple of months, I expect constant interventions in the overnight futures which will produce very choppy charts.

Trade well my friends


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