Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Did you have to say that??

Today's market started out with a nice little gap up then consolidated sideways into an intraday bullish ascending triangle, ready to climb further, then shortly after 1pm Bernanke said the words that no trader ever thought they would hear come out of a Fed Chairman's mouth "there is an unusually uncertain economic outlook". Within minutes the entire US Stock Market tanked more than 1%. The bulls were looking for "continuing to improve" wording in Bernanke's speech to Congress but got a slap in the face instead. This was very out of character for Bernanke, over the last few Fed speeches he has adopted Greenspan's classic ambiguity to be sure he never spooked the markets. My take on it is that Bernanke is preparing us for the idea that another bailout of some sort may be needed.

Timing is everything and today was a very bad day to have Bernanke scaring everyone. Nonetheless, the daily 5/10 & 5/21 setups weren't damaged that bad and can still be twisted back into shape if they bring the market back tomorrow with a decent day up. On the intraday charts they are signaling that that it is exactly their intention. From 145pm to 3pm today they crafted a nice ascending triangle on the 15min bars chart on all the indexes and they began a nice 5/50 retest setup on the 30min bars chart of all the indexes. Wall Street is signaling that they still want the market higher and now they are likely to have enough fresh new shorters in the market to enable them to short squeeze the market up tomorrow. I am still holding the SSO & QLD even though I took a 1 1/2% loss today because I know they have to keep this market moving up. If they can't keep it going it will turn down quickly and sell for months and there will be plenty of money to be made riding it down thru the three shorting ETFs and thru buying Puts.

I expect Bernanke will be getting calls tonight asking "did you have to say that??"

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