Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Buckle up for Friday's big payroll numbers report

Click on above images to enlarge

In the morning we will get the payroll numbers report and we should find out if the two day party in stocks is a genuine beginning of a new leg up or simply an anticipatory jamming of the market higher so that if the payroll causes a big smack down we wind up back at the S&P 1040 line.  

In the upper chart cluster, both the vix and the bonds both retested against the channel line they dropped on through yesterday morning which earns the #3 buy signal line for both.  For the bonds to earn the largest #4 green buy line they would have to drop thru the bottom line of their black line mother channel.  For the vix to earn the #4 green buy line it would have to drop back down into its brown downhill channel.

In the lower chart cluster, row 1 chart 1, today's volume was almost nonexistent.  This is likely a combination of both investors afraid to put any more money in until after Friday's payroll numbers report and a lot of people know that this is a brutally forced up rally and don't think it's sustainable.  In chart 3 row 1, today's candle opened just above the pink 50 line and crossed above the 324 EMA line into the close.  Just above it we have the great 108 EMA red line which is also shown on chart 4 row1.  Either tomorrow or Monday, the S&P will make a big attempt to cross above that pivotal line in the sand (assuming the payroll doesn't smack the market down as it has recently).   If the market does continue up to attempt to cross the 108 EMA tomorrow afternoon or Monday, it also has to cross the lower line of the brown line mother channel at exactly the same point as shown in chart 4 row 1.  This will either be a double power accelerant or double power resistance.  On top of that, to make it even more of an ultra pivot point, in row2, you see that the 6 week downhill brown channel also passes thru right at that same junction.  This triple pivot rarely ever happens and today's volume reflects a lot of people realize that and hence many traders will just sit and watch.  Nobody knows what is going to happen here. 

In row 3 chart 2 of the lower charts, the 30min intraday chart ,we can see how hard they have been driving this multi day jamfest in that they are maintaining a 5/10 red/green line repeating bounce.  Chart 3 row 3, we still have some room to move higher on the advance / decline chart tomorrow.  You will notice how most of the economic reports have almost magically turned positive during this 2-day market rally.  You might consider it a reasonable possibility that tomorrow's payroll report may get a little of that good old  accounting massaging to be sure it's release doesn't spoil anything.  Tomorrow and Monday means so much as far as whether or not we have the traditional fall run up in the market without the traditional Sept market dive, or whether we must still go through that.


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