Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Thursday, November 29, 2012


Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog

Click on image to enlarge

At first look you can see from the charts in the background that we got above the four barriers and actually came down to the barrier line and came back up from it.  

Friends, there is nothing real about this.  For starters PPT came in at 3AM and opened the first trade on the SPY at nearly $1 higher than yesterday's after hours close, come 830AM the third quarter GDP numbers were released with a ridiculous revision higher and the media claimed through the morning hours that this was the reason for the market's higher open when in reality the market was opened at that number five hours earlier.  Everyone knows that all gaps need to be filled and crossing a barrier line needs to retested.  At first glance the chart pasted over last night's cluster above shows a successful midday retest of the barrier line from the topside but that is not what happened.  The sudden move down to the barrier line was because of a three minute $1 dive in the SPY from Boehner's comments on CNBC.  The drop was sudden and caused a rubberband effect to pull it back up as always happens on these knee jerk market tanks happening in minutes.  That doesn't count as a retest, it was a fluke and now the SPY needs to trade steadily down to that line, stabilize, and push up from it to make it a successful and genuine confirmation.

If this is all we are going to get, this convoluted mess that was served up today then I just cannot turn bullish until I see something more genuine.  I may miss out on a rally tomorrow but I believe that if enough people saw what actually happened today instead of the illusion they were trying to create this market might just tank tomorrow instead.  It's not that I am bearish or trying to be bearish, it's just the fact that this is simply not how it works.


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