Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Monday, October 27, 2014

Market Holding At Big Pivot

Stock Market Technical Analysis

click on image to enlarge

Following up from last night's blog where we were considering that there might be an intervention in the futures last night, it clearly did not happen and the market opened down this morning.  This lends a little to the argument that the Fed is saving its dry powder for the Wednesday afternoon Fed speech.  

Looking at the two upper charts above both showing the same large EMAs on the S&P and VXX, we still have a stalemate situation as the VXX is ready to lift and cause a market sell off but the Fed refuses to let that happen and has forced the S&P into the same pancake line setup as the VXX which is something that is rarely seen.  As I said last night, one has to drop soon.

Looking at the two lower charts above, I have inlaid the ADX active lines at the bottom of the SPY chart.  You can view the green line as buyers and the red line as sellers.  Here once again it shows we are stuck at a neutral stalemate waiting for the pivot in both indexes to break one way or the other. The focus chart in the bottom right corner is a zoom in on the SPY ADX and if you get your nose up to the monitor you can see that the red line is very slightly under the green line indicating the beginning of bullishness but the green line is falling also instead of turning up which indicates the buyers are backing off also at this pivot.  No clear indication either way.

Looking at the second chart cluster above, we see that in chart 1 the S&P is showing resistance at its 50 SMA.  Chart 5 shows the S&P has found resistance at the lower line of its two year bubble channel.  Also, I inlaid a weekly candle chart at the corner of chart 5 that shows the S&P has resistance at the center basis line of the weekly Bollinger bands.

Looking at the third cluster above, the short term channels, we see the trading action is coming to a standstill as traders wait for the big EMA pivot situation on the S&P and VXX to resolve itself.

Trade well my friends


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