Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Thursday, October 23, 2014

S&P Climbing But VIX and VXX Not Falling

Stock Market Technical Analysis

click on image to enlarge

In the market Thursday we had a 3 AM SPY intervention that I detailed in my Thursday morning website blog post.  Throughout the day Thursday the squeeze was back on leaving us with closing charts I posted above.  The pink elephant in the room is whether or not there will be any new buyers coming into the market after the squeeze is finished.  

Looking at the charts above:

  • Chart 1 & 2:  the S&P and NASDAQ got above their 50 EMA lines today
  • Chart 3:  the VIX still closed above its 50 day at today's closing, it should have closed below it if traders felt this move today was going to hold
  • Chart 4:  the VXX held tight today, not buying into the overnight intervention and subsequent short squeeze at all
  • Chart 5:  the S&P tried but failed to reenter the two year bubble channel today
  • Chart 6:  the big EMA setup on the VXX was not hampered at all by today's action, still setup and ready for a big takeoff
  • Chart 7:  the VXX still holding that lower trendline and closed at the high of the day

Now taking a look at the short term channels of the four Indexes above.  

  • The S&P chart shows that it is trying to maintain its upper blue line squeeze channel but keeps falling out of it
  • The NASDAQ chart shows that it slipped out of its blue line squeeze channel going into the closing bell
  • The VIX chart climbed back up into its primary uphill blue channel in the last hour today
  • The VXX chart did the same, also reentering its steeper blue line channel

Putting it all together, there was a very successful intervention in the SPY at 3 AM and a surprisingly strong short squeeze today but looking at both sets of charts it appears that the VIX and VXX are just not buying into all of this.  A definite divergence as they should be falling hard but they are not. 

Trade well my friends


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