Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Friday, December 14, 2012


Stock Market Technical Analysis Blog

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In the stock market today we saw the slow meltdown continue from the weight of AAPL.

  • Chart 1 Nasdaq:  saw it slip out of the horizontal channel but came back up in the last hour.
  • Chart 2 VIX:  continued up into the blue channel but in its fifth 60 min. bar it became overextended and closed with a 60 min. shooting star candle.
  • Chart 3 VIX:  we see the red EMA has come back up to the green where it will either cross above Monday morning or start turning sideways underneath it to end the sell off as it did last week.  This outcome will have a big effect on the market.
  • Chart 4 AAPL:  we see that the red 5 crossed down thru its gold 324 at the open which immediately drew two downgrades from bull-side AAPL analysts.
  • Chart 5 & 6 AAPL:  the day and week candles, we see that both are back down to the lower bollinger.
  • Chart 8 AAPL:  showing its Day 432 EMA line.  
The really important charts tonight are 4 & 8.  In chart 4 the Day 5/324 EMA juncture is the strongest reversal point in technical analysis and when it is lost as it was today many people bail on the stock.  Wall Street does keep a backup line to give themselves a second chance to turn the stock back up when there were just too many sellers at the 5/324 juncture.  This backup net is a single line, the Day 432 EMA that is shown in blue in chart 8.

Note that back on 11/16 the 432 safety net caught the bottom tick and reversed AAPL back up and the entire market.  The invisible net is there but it requires commitment across Wall Street for it to hold.  Monday morning we will find out if Wall Street commits to it or if they themselves are bailing on AAPL.


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