Stock Market Viewpoint

Stock Market Viewpoint
Reading the Tea Leaves...

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

The Lift Continues

Stock Market Technical Analysis

click on image to enlarge

We had another big day in the market today off last Friday's AAPL 432 EMA pivot.

Looking at the charts above:

  • Chart 1:  Nasdaq shows we may have a sideways or pullback day tomorrow as the Nasdaq has reached its upper line of the its dominant short term channel shown with blue lines.
  • Chart 2:  VIX is also reflecting the same thing as it has reached the lower line of its short term dominant channel.
  • Chart 3:  We see the follow thru on the VIX of the red EMA being pushed down from the green EMA as I discussed last week.
  • Chart 4:  AAPL will get its first test tomorrow as it tries to cross back above the gold Day 324 EMA line.
  • Chart 5:  AAPL shows the blue 432 EMA safety net line I discussed in last Friday's blog.
  • Chart 6:  Weekly candle of AAPL
  • Chart 7:  Daily candle of AAPL
  • Chart 8:  Intraday of AAPL showing a $15 gain today on top of yesterday's $20 gain.  Anyone who was ready to buy yesterday morning when the pivot started to the upside has banked $35 on AAPL in two days.
Looking at the lower cluster above, the top left chart shows that the SPY is well on its way in its year and a half blue line uphill channel.  The lower left chart shows AAPL is rising nicely in its 10-month downhill blue line channel.  Note however, that it will have some resistance at the 550 level which is the upper line of its multi year black line channel.  

Taking a look at the three right side charts in the lower cluster where I have drawn the short term channels we see that it's likely that the Nasdaq and S&P will have pause tomorrow at their upper short term channel lines.  AAPL in the bottom chart actually broke up out of its 3-week downhill channel today.  

Tomorrow we will be watching to see if today's breakout in AAPL causes the Nasdaq and S&P to only go sideways and not down or whether the Nasdaq and S&P's upper channel line restraints will slow the AAPL rally.  It really could happen either way but it's likely to be influenced by any new developments in the fiscal cliff talks that emerge tomorrow.


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